To print: Click here or Select File and then Print from your browser's menu

This story was printed from silicon.com, located at http://www.silicon.com/

Story URL: http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39167362,00.htm

IPTV for beginners
Opinion: We have a long way to go...

By Howard Greenfield

Published: Monday 04 June 2007

Though everyone's making big predictions for IPTV's uptake, the services are still a long way off. Howard Greenfield outlines the forces which will bring this upcoming tech to life.

Though we may be nearing what Rupert Murdoch calls "the golden age of media", there's a hurdle ahead. Between today's cacophony of web-video services and the promised land of seamless interactive programming is the maturing of a little thing called IPTV.

In an industry just beginning to understand how to slam video down broadband pipes to achieve new, improved television experiences, there's still advertising and revenue requirements to meet, still a few speed bumps before reaching the new media ecosystem.

In fact, the last time I checked, we're all still beginners here, only a short way along from the black-and-white I Love Lucy days inception of the medium.

Huge growth is anticipated. IPTV households are expected to grow worldwide from around seven million to 48 million between now and 2019 - a 60 per cent annual growth rate over five years, according to market researcher Infonetics.

Yet between central office and broadband network to set-top and living room lurk quality issues. Scalability challenges still stand between what we have today and a smooth service reaching millions that can meet or beat the existing broadcast experience and deliver true web/TV 2.0 personalisation and interactivity.

Widespread trials and launches are underway in Asia, Europe and the US. Yet IPTV remains a zigzag of trial-and-error with broadcast, telecom and internet sectors calculating disruption versus return on investment.

Speaking at the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) conference I attended in April, OpenTV CEO Alan Guggenheim said: "The beauty of IPTV is that it is a mixed medium." Yet, he explained, that very combination of cross-industry strengths is confusing and we find ourselves "at a change point of technology with everyone wondering 'what is IPTV' and 'where is the world going?'"

We can envision a not-too-distant solution greater than the sum of the parts - internet, broadcast and telecoms. Video's emerging social networking power alone is overwhelming.

"We want to give users control... the ability to create channels," said Google's VP of content David Eun at the NAB conference, regarding the user-generated universe of broadband television. "People really want to be seen and they look at YouTube as a stage - a very open, friendly platform, participating in what's cool, what's not, what's inspiring."

The traditional business model for broadcasters, which has worked reasonably well for the past few decades, is starting to break down and consumers are demanding (and starting to receive) their video content in ways that were impractical even a few years ago.

So when will the revolution be televised? What are the technical, programming and business forces needed for escape velocity? These are the questions Wes Simpson and I set out to address in our new book IPTV and Internet Video. The forces behind the change that we focus on are:

Television has moved to the web

Viewers around the world tuned in to watch the 2006 Fifa World Cup in record numbers using their PCs and other internet-connected devices. InFront Sports reported more than 125 million downloads from the FifaWorldCup.com website of two-minute video clips with game summaries. While this number pales in comparison with the estimated 32 billion viewers of live broadcast coverage, the number of clip downloads increased by a huge factor between 2002 and 2006.

It's all personal: PVR timeshifting and ad-zapping

The use of personal video recorders (PVR) in the US has skyrocketed over the past few years, with a variety of standalone solutions as well as those integrated into set-top boxes from satellite and cable television providers. Worldwide sales in 2005 totalled 19 million units, and 11 per cent of US households have units. Broadcast advertisers have grown increasingly upset by the practice of commercial skipping and the loss of their ability to control the timing when viewers watch ads for specific events, such as movie openings or store sales.

Media has gone mobile

In Asia, mobile phones are just beginning to be used to deliver both broadcast and on-demand video services. Reports show that by 2010, there will be 68 million mobile TV users in Asia, or 55 per cent of the worldwide total of 120 million. Also, new standards for mobile file and stream delivery are often based on IP technology, indicating an increase in market penetration in coming years.

Everyone wants to be a producer

Meanwhile a wide range of user-generated video content continues to drive viewers to sites such as YouTube, which generated more than 100 million downloads per day in 2006. Clearly, at least for certain types of content, viewers are perfectly happy to watch video on normal PC displays.

Podcasting is official

More than 500,000 listeners downloaded podcasts of Ricky Gervais' free weekly show in early 2006, and the term 'podcasting' has officially become part of the language.

You are now free to placeshift

Devices from Apple, Sling Media and many others are now allowing consumers to move content among several different viewing devices, such as PCs, home television sets and portable media players. [From IPTV and Internet Video, Focal Press, 2007]

Global IPTV subscriber revenues are expected to reach $12.8bn by 2010, according to the Multimedia Research Group. But getting there and beyond, developing socially connected models that straddle 20th century TV and web 2.0 is a new sport. As I said, we're all IPTV beginners here.

Stay tuned for my next column in which I'll introduce you to my co-author Wes Simpson, tech geek extraordinaire. I'll ask him the hard-hitting questions on getting the basics right: what technical, media and business acumen is required to build out the IPTV systems that will exploit the opportunities ahead.

Howard Greenfield is a digital media industry strategist, columnist and co-author of IPTV & Internet Video (Focal Press, 2007). He is president of Go Associates, a leading consultancy that develops and implements high-tech product marketing and global business development strategies. Howard has held senior management and consulting positions with Sun Microsystems, Informix Software, BT, Apple and other world technology leaders. He is the creator and former manager of Sun's first Media Lab and completed his graduate studies at Stanford University. He can be reached at howard@go-associates.com.