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By Andy McCue

Published: Friday 29 October 2004


Name

Bruce Barrow


Location

London


Occupation

IT


Comment

The comment "gamblers vote for Bush" sort of misses the point.....

True, it is unlikely that anyone would back Bush to win and then go and vote Kerry, but for every person that backs Bush, there is someone "laying the bet". This means that someone else is in the transaction, and they are taking a bet in the hope that Bush loses. They just don't think he will, as shown by the odds.

Oh, and these online exchanges are often more about making money than getting the result right - lots of people try and just play the margin: backing at 3-1 (say) and then laying at 2-1 (obviously hoping that the market will go that way and their bet will be taken). That way, they make a profit - albeit usually a small one - whoever wins.

So the correct (I think) inference is as follows:

* Gamblers believe they can make money by backing Bush into 'short'.

* They're (probably) not doing this out of political allegiance/ preference.

* It is still a cheap publicity stunt by Betfair (IMHO).



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