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Story URL: http://networks.silicon.com/mobile/0,39024665,39165557,00.htm

Future mobiles will cost consumers $150bn
'If I could just give up the SMS and stick to gambling and porn... '

By Jo Best

Published: Wednesday 31 January 2007

With the average handset becoming ever more high-end, there will be more cash sunk into content and services by consumers - up to $150bn by 2011, analysts believe.

Messaging, including IM, email and old favourite SMS, will still make up the bulk of revenues - 67 per cent - but entertainment will emerge as the young pretender as consumers rush to spend their cash on games, gambling, personalisation and adult content. Mobile entertainment will be worth to $38.12bn in 2011, up from $18.84bn in 2006.

Mobile music will begin to realise its potential as higher speed 3G and HSDPA networks become more widespread, although the analysts warn the industry will need to rethink its approach.

Nick Lane, principal analyst at Informa, told silicon.com: "DRM will be critical. If the industry wants us to start using more content, it needs to start thinking like the retailers. If I buy a towel from Debenhams, they don't tell me I can use it once a month. [The industry] needs to be more logical."

Other emerging services will start to make their mark although their impact is likely to remain small, including mobile user-generated content, payments and TV.

Mobile payments, including NFC, will remain the cash cow of the newbies, generating $359m by 2011 - although most of the revenues will come from the Asia Pacific region where the technology is already in widespread use.

Lane said: "In Japan, the phone has almost become a mobile wallet, primarily because of cultural difference because credit card adoption and uptake is very low. In Europe, it's a long way off - credit cards are entrenched."