Minority Report: iPhone, Android and the world in your pocket

Last month's launch of iPhone developer software passed unnoticed by the general public. Yet it was an event that could make 2008 a significant milestone in the evolution of the mobile phone as a platform, says Seb Janacek.

If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, then Apple CEO Steve Jobs must be feeling rather pleased with himself at the moment.

According to a recent report on silicon.com, the iPhone effect is filtering through the rest of the handset market as other manufacturers add new features to remain competitive with the touchscreen device.

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While smart phones only represent around 10 per cent of the global handset market, the sector is growing fast. It's estimated that 31 per cent of all handsets sold in 2013 will be smart phones.

That growth is partly because smart operating systems are filtering down from desktop computers and laptops into handheld middle-tier devices, as users demand that desktop and internet applications bridge the divide between computer and phone.

Last month, Apple released the long-awaited Software Development Kit (SDK) for the iPhone, finally satisfying the clamour from the worldwide developer community who see the device as a cash cow and an attractive, innovative platform to develop for.

Apple certainly isn't the first manufacturer to realise the importance of third-party development on a phone but it might prove to be one of the critical moves that captures the hearts and minds of consumers and indeed the developer community.

It's been a heady year for the iPhone. The device has managed to invigorate the market with its core value proposition of mail, phone, music player and mobile internet but little else. The maps function is still a work in progress, while stocks and weather apps hardly set the pulse racing.

Just wait until hundreds of developers start peddling their wares for the device. The June Apple developer conference is likely to focus heavily on the iPhone and development roadmap, probably more so than the Mac.

While worldwide computer unit sales continue to slow - although Macs are bucking the trend - it's in mobiles that growth is predicted as the web moves to handheld devices.

Apple's role as a newcomer to the market, albeit with a single product, is a pivotal one. The iPhone has had a dramatic effect on the market since its introduction and the company looks to be on track to meet its target of selling 10 million devices by the end of 2008.

It's also upset the traditional handset-carrier relationship with the lop-sided agreements with carriers in the US and Europe very much in its own favour. It's an overstatement to say the device has turned the market on its head but it has made the competition, both old and new, sit up and take notice.

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There are several major firms already in the increasingly crowded market. Symbian, RIM and Nokia are the big incumbents. Like every other market, Microsoft is there too with its own Windows Mobile operating system and platform.

More significantly for the immediate future of the mobile is the arrival of the new entrants. Aside from Apple, the Google-led Android consortium caught the imagination at the recent Mobile World Congress and has captured the headlines since its launch.

Meanwhile, this month LiMo, another open source consortium backed by major suppliers, launched its wares in Las Vegas.

As the mobile phone continues on its evolutionary path away from humble communications unit to converged device and emerging platform, the companies best suited to take it forward may well be those with a track record in developing applications for desktop environments and - significantly in Google's case - better convergence with the internet, search and advertising.

As the phone evolves further as a platform, consumers and enterprises alike will have greater faith in brands that already operate successfully on the desktop and the web - brands such as Apple, Google and Microsoft - rather than mobile device brands.

Apple and Google have clearly anticipated and recognised this potential. CEO Steve Jobs announced at the iPhone launch last January that the company had put the OS X operating system at the heart of the device.

Apple is banking on OS X, which has won so many plaudits with its intuitive interface and Unix bedrock, to fare well against the Microsoft juggernaut, the open source consortiums and the market incumbents.

The market share battle between these areas will be fascinating, a battleground for closed versus open systems.

Apple's role in this will be very significant. Despite only being available in four countries and on the market for less than a year, the impact of the iPhone has been massive. Some reports have the device in third place in the US smart phone market with a 20 per cent share and at 6.5 per cent globally.

The iPhone has a golden opportunity to maintain its initial impetus and build on its initial success. But it has another role that it's well accustomed to - as an agenda-setter.

The Mac, and more recently the iPod, have had an undeniable influence on both the hardware and operating system and applications design in the computer and music player industry. Apple looks likely to repeat the trick with the iPhone.

As predicted by many pundits and industry leaders at the recent Mobile World Congress (MWC) event, the ground-breaking design of the iPhone is kick-starting a new wave of innovation across the mobile industry.

Vodafone CEO Arun Sarin predicted the rest of the industry would be playing catch-up to the iPhone.

At MWC in February, he said: "Apple has raised the bar to the iPhone and we all now know how important user interfaces are...We as an industry will have to raise our game to make sure we can produce the kind of user interface that our customers are now becoming accustomed to."

Like Android and Microsoft's offering, Apple and the iPhone will have a huge influence in bringing the mobile as a platform into the consumer mainstream.

It's a given that we'll see the release of a 3G version - or versions - of the iPhone this year. But it's the release of the device's SDK that promises to make 2008 a significant milestone in the evolution of the mobile phone as a platform.