Every European to have a mobile by 2007?

Western Europe is nearing total saturation for mobile phone usage but still has a way to go before that becomes a reality.

In 2004, 90 per cent of Europeans were active mobile subscribers, meaning they'd used their service within the last three months. That figure is expected to rise to 98 per cent by 2006 and 100 per cent by 2007, according to a new research report from Analysys.

But these numbers should not be misunderstood. Alex Zadvorny, senior analyst at Analysys and co-author of the report The Western European Mobile Market, told silicon.com: "The point is that 100 per cent penetration doesn't mean everyone owns mobile phones. Some people own more than one phone or SIM card."

The most common scenarios for this are people who own one mobile for work and one for personal use, or those who own multiple SIM cards because each has a particularly good offering on different types of service, Zadvorny said.

This research is in line with a recent survey of silicon.com readers, which asked whether they knew people without mobile phones. Nearly 40 per cent responded 'Doesn't everybody have one?' Yet at the same time an equal number said they knew one to three people who didn't have mobiles. A further seven per cent admitted that they themselves did not have one.

Growing numbers of mobile subscribers may sound like good news for mobile operators but they need to make sure this does not come at the cost of lowered average revenue per user (ARPU).

One way operators are dealing with this is by pushing non-messaging services such as music or video services. "But this is still a very small percentage of total revenue, about three per cent," Zadvorny said.

Another tactic would be to concentrate on voice services, he explained. Operators could take advantage of the efficiencies offered by 3G and sell bundles of large amounts of minutes. "If this is implemented well, with services repositioned and marketing done well, it could lead to people increasing spending on mobile phones," he said.