Mobile messaging: Kids' thumbs worth billions

The market for mobile messaging is set to nearly double over the coming years - but high prices will ensure video messaging remains niche among mobile users.

According to analyst house Forrester, traffic from mobile messaging will grow by 92 per cent over the next five years. The boom, however, may not prove music to operators' ears; the analysts are predicting revenues will only grow by 10 per cent, from €19bn to reach €21bn by the end of 2010.

The growth in traffic will come from text-happy youngsters as 10- to 15-year-olds are increasingly starting a trend for mobile phone ownership at a young age. Around 80 per cent of teens now use texting services, the report found, boosting the average number of texts sent to over 70 a month.

However, despite more sore thumbs to come in Europe, SMS (short message service) revenues will fall, Forrester predicts, continuing a pattern that has seen text revenues drop 65 per cent between 2001 and 2005.

Multimedia message service, or MMS, often regarded as the poor cousin of mobile data, will see its revenues explode by contrast - growing ninefold to €5bn by 2010, partially due to a considerably higher cost per message.

IMPS - instant messaging with presence services - will be the star performer in the next five years, however, growing to account for eight per cent of traffic before the end of the decade and outstripping both mobile email and video messaging in growth terms.