3G prizes will go to 'second movers'

Against the dot-com tradition, the bonanzas of 3G will probably go to the 'second movers', according to a report by Capgemini.

Instead of the advantages which have accrued to the 'first movers' in the dot-com revolution, the next stage of development for mobiles could be a reversion to the old computer-company saying that pioneers are the ones with arrows in their backs.

Jawad Shaikh, head of TME Strategy Lab at Capgemini, said: "Being first has not been enough for 3, and it's not going to be enough. The other carriers will be able to watch 3's tribulations and learn from them and offer much more robust services.

"The users don't care about 3G – they're just interested in what services they want that will be offered. It's clear that 3G was never going to be end-to-end, so you'll need to be able to manage the transition onto a 2G or 2.5G network.

"I'm not a network expert, but it seems to me that if you own the network then you'll be able to manage the transitions and the handovers and offer the services."

The relative failure of 3G to take off in Europe, despite the rosy hopes which led companies to pay €100bn for licences, has been due to patchy networks, poor and unattractive handsets and the lack of a must-have service.

And while everyone quotes the overwhelming success for 3G in Japan and the Far East, Shaikh points out that, after 17 months of operation, DoCoMo had only managed to gain 400,000 customers. This gives a context to 3's 250,000 in the UK since it launched last year.

He said: "The case for corporate usage is clear. There, you just want access and a laptop card will give you simple, convenient, secure connectivity – you aren't tied to a hotspot. For consumers, there isn't a single value proposition – or none has emerged so far.

"The established companies will be able to see the customer expectations that are not being met and then bring out their own services. They have strong customer bases and know their own customers."