Nokia handset sales: are they all that they seem?

Nokia's reported market share is looking good this year, at 37 per cent of the global market, but the real picture isn't quite as rosy as that.

In its final year results, released today, the company listed its own sales of handsets at 140 million, from a global total of 380 million.

As the press release said: "This resulted in a significant rise in the company's global market share from around 32 per cent in 2000 to an estimated share of around 37 per cent in 2001, bringing the company closer to its targeted long-term 40 per cent market share."

Nice work, guys - pour yourselves an extra shot of Finlandia vodka tonight. And while you're at it, perhaps you could explain why your estimate of 380 million handset sales is five to 10 per cent lower than anyone else's?

The lowest independent estimate we found was from the Yankee Group, which predicted global handset sales of 396 million. Other estimates are above 400 million, and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein's estimates were 420 million.

If you include existing inventory in that figure, i.e. calculate the number of handsets actually sold to punters globally, DKW's figure rises to 460 million.

After doing the sums, 140 million for 380 million gives a market share figure slightly below 37 per cent, which is not too bad. Take 400 million as an average figure and Nokia's market share is exactly 35 per cent, and that 40 per cent market share figure starts to look a long way off. Take DKW's figure and Nokia's market share is actually falling.

So, why the fudging? Per Lindbergh, managing director of DKW's technology research team, told silicon.com: "There is a definite tendency among the big suppliers to ignore sales from the smaller suppliers. If I add the figures from the nine largest suppliers together, and leave out the small ones, I get Nokia's figure."

"They must know they are out there. But I think they are trying to send a message to the smaller competitors, saying 'you can't get rid of us'. If the competition saw that even the mighty Nokia's sales are slipping then they'll be whetting their appetites."

"And after all, how often do you see a chief executive stand up and tell the world that his sales are slipping?"

Nokia declined to comment.