What happened to RFID's baggage-tracking boom?

Despite a number of trials and pilots worldwide, the use of RFID to track baggage for airlines has not taken off in the way many industry pundits expected. But, say analysts, it's only a matter of time before the track and trace technology starts making airlines dive for their chequebooks.

According to ABI Research, the market for using RFID to track travellers' bags will more than double by 2011 - up from this year's total of $11.8m to $27.5m in five years' time.

However, compared to a total market some experts believe could reach $3bn by 2010, RFID in the sky remains relatively small potatoes. This, according to ABI Research, is because a number of factors are holding back its adoption.

Among the barriers currently causing head-scratching for airlines' procurement people is the question of whether airports or airlines should pay for the tracking tech and the high price of tags.

The research company believes Asian and European airlines will be the first to start tracking bags, with their hard-up US counterparts hanging back from adopting RFID. Among the flyboys currently piloting the tech are Air France, Delta and Virgin Atlantic.

Lost baggage currently costs the travel industry more than $1bn per year and, with retrieving an errant bag costing around $100 a pop, advocates claim RFID could significantly reduce the bill.

A separate study by RFID analyst IDTechEx envisages a brighter future for bag-finding RFID - predicting a market worth $100m by 2016. It also expects such applications to make up 50 per cent of the airlines' total spend on RFID this year.

Others are slightly more sceptical whether RFID will take off for the airline industry. Last year, industry body Sita described RFID as a technology in search of an application.