Leader: Broadband debate will shift

The debate over broadband can now be separated into two camps. The first is still all about availability, access - call it what you will. As yesterday's announcement from BT shows, reaching a near-term target of 100 per cent availability in the UK won't be easy.

This publication has heard about the extent BT is going to tap certain wide area wireless technologies to economically serve remote areas. Digging up streets is one (troublesome) thing. Digging up tens of miles of rural lanes quite another.

But let's assume that the UK and other European countries can get total coverage or at least something as near to total coverage as cellular mobile operators typically cite. Then what?

Well the second part of the debate focuses on what happens when we have broadband. For those crying out for it, this may seem ridiculous. Ask them and they know it will help them work and probably help them communicate and have fun more easily.

But there are plenty of theories out there as to what will provide the big push - what people in the industry are prone to call the tipping point. A report out earlier this week from a division of PricewaterhouseCoopers proposes collaboration is the key thing. To summarise very bluntly, this means people sharing information using a variety of applications but definitely including video conferencing, IM and a mix of mobile and wireless. Presence is key to this development. What it isn't is the top-down model of information dissemination most broadcast and print media purvey.

However, for the purposes of that study broadband meant over 512Kbps. Some ISPs, for example Tiscali's UK business, are even talking about broadband speeds starting at 150Kbps or so.

As one silicon.com reader pointed out: "The upstream figure is the weakest link" but also "512Kbps downstream isn't that great, as a single video connection can swamp it. Better stop that game, the kids P2P app and the latest service pack/Windows update/driver download then."

So here’s our prediction: we'll nearly all be able to sign up to broadband by the end of next year but at that stage campaigns for 'real broadband' will spring up. Informed about 10Mbps speeds - almost 20 times faster than the oft-quoted 512Kbps - in countries such as South Korea and Sweden, consumers and small businesses will re-evaluate what they're given.

The best we can say is that the more enlightened ISPs and telcos are already moving to faster broadband now, albeit at premium prices. But that's a debate for another time.